About this article: http://www.amrresearch.com/Content/View.asp?pmillid=19699&pubid=2726&custid=381817

Just to summarize: the author says that ERP will disappear in 4-6 years because customers will build their own business process platforms with the help of system integrators instead of continuing to upgrade their SAP or Oracle application platforms.

I tell you why it's not true: Copying and paste-ing custom solutions is feasible only if you have a market segment which is not mature enough to let generalized software products arise. I've seen this from inside a company that did this in the telco billing area. At the end customers realized that the company that developed their custom solutions quickly became a "monopoly" because their system was not standard in any way, so they easily could push up their prices to the skies (I can assure you that a system integrator from India would do that as well immediately as soon as they can). As a result customers started to push this company to productize its solutions, which the company did. So as a result this software vendor started to be like a mini-SAP. Isn't it strange? History repeats itself.

My prediction is that the opposite will happen: integrators will suffer from being much easier to compose custom business processes based on SOA-based business process platforms (therefore integration projects being simpler, quicker and definitely cheaper), and large ERP vendors will flourish as never before.

Come back in 5 years and decide who was right

 

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